Featured

A Random Walk In The Park On A Monday Morning. A Caution. Monday Mornings Are Often Not An Option Players Best Friend

Let's start with this. It's now 10:26 a.m. A bet on Caterpillar rebounding by the end of the week. There are no takers. Why have to watch the screen for the next four days in agony waiting for a rebound which if happens is just a "break even trade"? But Wait. I made a mistake. The market is actually now down 668 points. What else can we look at? Interactive Brokers. These kind of stocks always do poorly on days with the threat of margin calls. Yet there is something interesting about the printout I am about to show. It is that these options are "one-month-out" Calls. These longer term options trade differently than short term options. (these options trade in one month intervals). If the stock we are following stops it's freefall the value of the options will nudge up ten, fifteen or twenty percent. A seven dollar option Call might creep back up to $8.00 or $9.00 at which time it could be sold. In contrast with a five day option a slight reversal in ...
Post a Comment

Boeing and Trading Platform Failures

Monday mornings. I try and stay away from option trading on Monday mornings but this time I thought I could catch the upside on Boeing on a weak opening. Here is the premarket quotes at 9:08 a.m. and here is the premarket by ticket I placed. At 8:02 a.m.I placed a bid of $2.52 when the premarket at that time had Boeing trading down by about two dollars a share. I was trying to purchase a Boeing 225.50 Call which would then expire at the end of the week. I was being a bit stingy with my order but it was an experiment. It must be mentioned that when your placing an order in the premarket there are no "bids' and "asks" so you have to pick a price you feel comfortable paying. Thats what makes the exercise tricky. How much lower will a Call option open than it closed on the previous day? It depends in part apon how many days it is away from expiring. The more days further out the expiracy date is the less it will go down in price. That plus you don't get an instant fill. You have to wait a minute or two until after the opening bell to find out if you got what you were trying to buy. It's not really a perfect system but that's the way it works.
So what happened, did I get my fill? Something really strange happened. Look at this update on Boeing twenty three minutes into the trading session. What do you notice in the printout of how this series on Call options was trading?
At 9:53 a.m. there was no bid or asks posted and no trades. A technical issue of some sort took down the system of all option trading. How strange is that? Imagine if that was to happen on a Friday afternoon when you where trying to close out a position? The bottom line is that not only can your brokerage company have mechanical issues with their platforms, so to can the entire system provider for the exchange itself. In this case the system was down for over an hour. What happened to my little ticket to buy? Boeing ended up charging up on the day and I never got a fill.
Now a follow up to my last blog on Lowes. I talked about how it rallied last week on the news of lumber prices crashes. Well over the weekend news surfaced on forest fires and railway lines out of commisission because of fires on their train tracks. Shipping lumber out was suddenly an issue and the spot market for lumber was shooting back up because of the continuing fires. Here is how Lowes reacted to that news on the opening.
Would that have made it a great time to buy into the upside with options on the Monday morning after a quick selloff? Perhaps, however once again the trading platforms were down.
Such is life.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Living on Kraft Dinner?

Image
What does the word disconnect mean? As a verb it means "to sever or interrupt the connection of or between; detach". Option trading - one day options - is a disconnect from the world. What happens to slightly "out-of-the-money" Call options on Costco when the stock shoot up thirty dollars on the day? I will show you what happened on Friday to Costco Calls and the options on a few other stocks I frequently watch. What a disconnect from the real world. But before that a look at how the indexes traded. 1) Costco. It's five day chart and a look at how three of it's option series moved upwards in one day. You may not know how to read these printouts but try to read the highs and lows on these option pricings. One printout shows an "at-the-money" option which means you are buying a contract on the stock, good for one day only at a locked in price equal to (or very close to) what the stock is currently trading at. The other two contracts shown are ...
Read more

The Little Engine That Could

Image
Walmart again. It's all I seem to blog about. Here is it's five day chart. The stock keeps going up and the option series are set up in one dollar spreads. Even a fifty cent move on the stock moves the needle on these Calls. Look at how this series of Calls was trading yesterday at 3:00 p.m.. Now here is this same series of Calls just before noon today. Thirty days of upward action like this punctuated by the off day of decline. Now notice the higher volume of trading in the series of Calls with the higher striking price. These are the ones's with more leverage. At the same time look at the five day chart on Costco. The two stocks sometimes trade in tandem. Humpty dumpty sat on a wall .... a had a great fall. Someday soon a fall might happen but what a great ride it has been.
Read more

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slighty out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-mas...
Read more