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Showing posts from January, 2022

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Deere Jumped.

If it jumped this much can you purchase a Put $8.69 "out-of-the-money" that expires tomorrow in the hopes that some of the froth comes out of this stock? How do you jump in to play the downside with any confidence. Is a reversal imminent? It becomes a question of waiting it out. When G.M. had an earnings report back about three weeks ago the stock jumped something like four or five dollars and then hung in at that higher level for an extended period of time. Here is a chart showing that. Once Deere stops going up is it going to linger sideways for a while? Probably not. It's not like the company suddenly discovered gold. They make tractors. Let's find out. It's now noon. Suprisingly Caterpillar is not jumping up in sympathy. Would that give you a reason to be looking at it's Calls? Here is one series that expire tomorrow about $5.00 "out-of-the-money". Let's see what happens. Now back to Deere again. These Puts are now $25.95 dollars ...

Disappointment on The Opening - Caterpillar Earnings Report

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Caterpillar's earnings report. What I see is 4th quarter sales up 23%. Strong 4th quarter earnings of $3.71 per share.That's a solid number. Just think, the supply chain issue isn't being used as a mistake. Now look at the the opening options market. The stock is down on the news. Management made a few remarks about near term headwinds. They do that sometimes to temper growth expectations. These two quotes are the 205 Call series which expire today. One is at 9:44 a.m. and one is at 10:03 a.m.. They would be very dangerous to consider purchasing since its very unlikely that they could ever shake off this downward spike so early in the morning. So now what? It's at this time in the morning when the decision to reacte to this bad news gets tricky. The stock is down like ten dollars and the DJI is having a good day. There is a strong tempation to jump in on the upside hoping for a quick reversal. That's one of the things that makes option trading so difficult. One...