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Showing posts from January, 2022

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The Falling Off A Cliff Chart. I.B.M.

I.B.M. had a bad week. Here is how bad it was. Sometimes you see charts like this. It was down $74.89 on the week. What happened? The headlines said "I.B.M. just sent a warning to dividend investors". Something about it missing earnings forecasts because of an artificial-intelligence-related shift in it's customers spending. That is a new one that we don't hear very often. Which way is this stock going to now move? It's probably dumb to be chasing this when the outcome will most likely be all so random. Yet it is I.B.M. which for a long time was at the top of it's game. Let's share the experience together. Here is what the Calls and Puts nearest to what the stock is trading at are doing going into Monday morning's action. These are options that expire on Friday at the end of this week. Don't gasp and say that the premiums exorbitant? They are not. On a sliver of good news they could rebound twenty dollars. Something is happening in our markets. I...

Disappointment on The Opening - Caterpillar Earnings Report

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Caterpillar's earnings report. What I see is 4th quarter sales up 23%. Strong 4th quarter earnings of $3.71 per share.That's a solid number. Just think, the supply chain issue isn't being used as a mistake. Now look at the the opening options market. The stock is down on the news. Management made a few remarks about near term headwinds. They do that sometimes to temper growth expectations. These two quotes are the 205 Call series which expire today. One is at 9:44 a.m. and one is at 10:03 a.m.. They would be very dangerous to consider purchasing since its very unlikely that they could ever shake off this downward spike so early in the morning. So now what? It's at this time in the morning when the decision to reacte to this bad news gets tricky. The stock is down like ten dollars and the DJI is having a good day. There is a strong tempation to jump in on the upside hoping for a quick reversal. That's one of the things that makes option trading so difficult. One...