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Showing posts from January, 2022

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Why I Don't Like Trading Options On McDonald's

Same stores sales are up 6.8% in Q4 2025. With inflation and rising labour and food costs, 6.8% is not really very much. Then the rumours about 2,000 or so more outlets opening up this year are the same projections that we heard over the last few years. What they always forget to tell us is the number of their restaurants shutting down. Why might some be shutting down? Well maybe a new highway going is diverting some of the road traffic off in a different direction or a neighbouring high school is closing down. Four years ago they lost some restaurants in Russia. Now look at this. Next this. McDonald's trading on the close back on Thursday. It had a good day. There is new talk about a bigger and better "Big Arch" meal with a bigger burger with a better tangy and creamy sauce. Now this. Today's one day chart. It's Monday. Now it's one day of Call option trading. Look at the volume of trading on these Call options. Over 6,000 contracts. The open interest ...
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Disappointment on The Opening - Caterpillar Earnings Report

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Caterpillar's earnings report. What I see is 4th quarter sales up 23%. Strong 4th quarter earnings of $3.71 per share.That's a solid number. Just think, the supply chain issue isn't being used as a mistake. Now look at the the opening options market. The stock is down on the news. Management made a few remarks about near term headwinds. They do that sometimes to temper growth expectations. These two quotes are the 205 Call series which expire today. One is at 9:44 a.m. and one is at 10:03 a.m.. They would be very dangerous to consider purchasing since its very unlikely that they could ever shake off this downward spike so early in the morning. So now what? It's at this time in the morning when the decision to reacte to this bad news gets tricky. The stock is down like ten dollars and the DJI is having a good day. There is a strong tempation to jump in on the upside hoping for a quick reversal. That's one of the things that makes option trading so difficult. One...
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