Featured

Living on Kraft Dinner?

What does the word disconnect mean? As a verb it means "to sever or interrupt the connection of or between; detach". Option trading - one day options - is a disconnect from the world. What happens to slightly "out-of-the-money" Call options on Costco when the stock shoot up thirty dollars on the day? I will show you what happened on Friday to Costco Calls and the options on a few other stocks I frequently watch. What a disconnect from the real world. But before that a look at how the indexes traded. 1) Costco. It's five day chart and a look at how three of it's option series moved upwards in one day. You may not know how to read these printouts but try to read the highs and lows on these option pricings. One printout shows an "at-the-money" option which means you are buying a contract on the stock, good for one day only at a locked in price equal to (or very close to) what the stock is currently trading at. The other two contracts shown are ...
Post a Comment

Deere and Caterpillar - A Market Drop 500 Points In One Day.

The markets crashed 500 points so play John Deere Puts.
It sounds simple but it isn't.
Look at these charts on it today. First a mid day chart which shows Deere jumping up quickly on the opening and then a one day chart and finally a five day chart.
So I decided to play it on the downside thirty five minutes into the trading session after it jumped up on the opening with a Put option that would expire on it the following day. I was fishing. It was the 390 series of Puts I was looking at and they were about eight dollars "out-of-the-money". Sound crazy? Well I wouldn't actually need a drop that large. A move of let's say five dollars to the downside during the day would be enough to generate a profit. Here is a chart showing the 390 Puts for the entire day and a cancelling of a my buy order early in the morning.
At 9:54 a.m. I cancelled a buy order for a 390 Deere Put for $1.05 dollars when they were trading for about $1.10 This buy ticket was placed only about three minutes earlier. If you scroll up to the top of the three charts can you see how the stock shot up in price in the first thirty minutes of trading. That was my reasonings for getting excited about playing the downside on it. Had I not cancelled the order I would have gotten a fill around 10:00 a.m. or then again around 12:30 p.m. as Deere stayed strong until just after lunch. Then look at how this series of put options closed the day at $2.05 after reaching an interday high of $2.65. I missed all of this action. All of this is crazy you might say. You could be right! Look at how low the volume of trading was on this series of Puts. ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Now for a look at how Caterpillar traded today, the day once again of a 500 point D.J.I. drop. It traded down on the day by .30 cents. What a strange looking chart. Around 10:40 a.m. would have being a good time to play it down.
Here is what I did and here is how Caterpillar closed the day.
The rally it had at the end of the day will make for a feable opening on Friday morning.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slighty out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-mas...
Read more

Trump Media Technology Options With Three Days To Go.

Image
On Tuesday just after 3:00 p.m the Trump Media Technology Options had stop traded again. What is the next 24 hours going to bring? Who knows. So many option traders follow this stock and most are afraid to buy either Call or Put Options on it because their premiums are so expensive. If Trumph wins the stock should soar and if he loses the stock will tank. The option premiums are priced expensively in both directions. Here now is how both the Calls and Puts traded on the opening today. First the Calls six minutes into the opening. Now the Puts. Now a look at how these options played the day. With a "stop trading" situation the option session ended a little bit early as evidenced in these following readings. Notice also how low the open interest number is in these Puts. Option traders for the most part opted to stay away from this situation. Now this. Trump wins. Here is how the 38 series of Calls traded just after the opening at 10:11 a.m.. The stock is up however the...
Read more

Living on Kraft Dinner?

Image
What does the word disconnect mean? As a verb it means "to sever or interrupt the connection of or between; detach". Option trading - one day options - is a disconnect from the world. What happens to slightly "out-of-the-money" Call options on Costco when the stock shoot up thirty dollars on the day? I will show you what happened on Friday to Costco Calls and the options on a few other stocks I frequently watch. What a disconnect from the real world. But before that a look at how the indexes traded. 1) Costco. It's five day chart and a look at how three of it's option series moved upwards in one day. You may not know how to read these printouts but try to read the highs and lows on these option pricings. One printout shows an "at-the-money" option which means you are buying a contract on the stock, good for one day only at a locked in price equal to (or very close to) what the stock is currently trading at. The other two contracts shown are ...
Read more