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A Random Walk In The Park On A Monday Morning. A Caution. Monday Mornings Are Often Not An Option Players Best Friend

Let's start with this. It's now 10:26 a.m. A bet on Caterpillar rebounding by the end of the week. There are no takers. Why have to watch the screen for the next four days in agony waiting for a rebound which if happens is just a "break even trade"? But Wait. I made a mistake. The market is actually now down 668 points. What else can we look at? Interactive Brokers. These kind of stocks always do poorly on days with the threat of margin calls. Yet there is something interesting about the printout I am about to show. It is that these options are "one-month-out" Calls. These longer term options trade differently than short term options. (these options trade in one month intervals). If the stock we are following stops it's freefall the value of the options will nudge up ten, fifteen or twenty percent. A seven dollar option Call might creep back up to $8.00 or $9.00 at which time it could be sold. In contrast with a five day option a slight reversal in ...
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Boeing and Caterpillar on Jan 6th With the DJI up 700 Points.

First some background information. The three and one year charts on Boeing and Caterpillar.
Now the Caterpillar three and one year chart.
Both stocks have had amazing upward moves in the last ninety days. That means playing Calls correct? Look at Friday's Call option action. First Boeing.
The 205 Calls surged ten fold on the day. Now Caterpillar.
The 245 Calls also surged upwards.
Another ten fold increase. With the Caterpillar Calls above one could have purchased ten contracts at $300.00 and sold out at $4,900.00. Let's now look at the one day chart to see how this would be possible.
Buying into this position around 9:45 a.m. in hindsight was the time to get in.
The following few points might better put all of this into perspective. 1) Commenting on past events of what has just happened is not that difficult to do. It's like going to a rocket launch and describing what just happened. The compelling reason I write about situations like this is because they do happen. Boeing and Caterpillar, both strong stocks in recent times do sometimes charge up on Fridays and if your willing to throw some money into Call options on the very day they expire you sometimes can be handsomely rewarded. 2) What are the odds Of Boeing or Caterpillar going up eight dollars in one day? I would guess about ten times a year. What are the odds of a slight morning decline before a rebound back up on one of these days? I would say eight out ten times. What we witnessed wasn't that abnormal. It's a mix of playing the strenght of the markets and a stock in a strong short term uptrend. 3) Friday morning option trading on options that expire that day is a game very few play for obvious reasons but it is also a game some option players specialize in. 4) One techique option players sometimes use is to buy into option positions just before the close of the markets on Thursday and sell into the strenght of premarkets openings. It's a bet on the opening higher. Are tenfold option price increases exclusive to stocks like Boeing and Caterpillar? Not really. Look at Tesla on Friday. The same thing happened.
Take note. Over 65,000 option contracts traded in the series shown in one day. Profits potentially made could help pay for new Telsa cars. Trading in one day options isn't really a secret.
Location: 4QMPH9W3+VX

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