Featured

Towards Understanding The Usefullnes Of Long Term Call Options

What do you think of this chart? It's Moderna. It's going to do something but what is it going to do? Up or down and what time horizon should we be looking at? Should it be two days, a week or perhaps two or three months? Here is the chatter about it. Moderna got smoked and now its time to get over it. It's that simple. Here now is how it is trading the morning after. For option traders this is kind of a "no win" situation. Yes it could move up but it could also start to waiver again. Stay away. Now Moderna on the following day. Here is a new chart to look at. Here is what caused the dip. It has had a good run. So now what? Maybe the longer term Calls? Maybe however there is a problem with them. Built into the equasion on both of these stocks is the mindset that they are both going to recover from these tumbles. Look at how expensive these two different series of twelve dollars "out-of-the-money" Call options are on Eli Lilly. It's ridiculous....
Post a Comment

My Friday Morning Feb17th Trading.

Here is what the market is doing just minutes after the opening. Not much. It's a Friday and I am looking at options that expire today and also looking at options one week out. I will talk about "next-week-options" later. Monday will be a holiday.
Here are my trades this morning and a picture of me. When I trade on Friday's it's always the first fifteen minutes of trading that are the most interesting to watch and try to play. Except that is when everything is going down.
* Telsa blasted up in the afternoon and the real action was in the Calls. I was lucky on that one to make money on a Put. Buying Calls on the opening that expire that day seems kind of dumb yet that's where smart money went. Look at the Call volume numbers.
Lucky on Visa also as the Calls I bought ended up expiring worthless. I was playing the 225 Calls between 9:47 a.m. and 10:36 a.m.
Boeing closed at $396.00. I didn't hang in with long enough after it came off a morning dip. On Friday's with one day options the less time that you spend in a position the better.
Trade times (lenght of average holding) was 14, 45 and 49 minutes. I was finished trading the one day Calls at 10:46 a.m. I didn't think to revisit a Telsa position at noon time but maybe I should have. What a rocket ride upwards it's Call options had on the day.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slighty out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-mas...
Read more

Trump Media Technology Options With Three Days To Go.

Image
On Tuesday just after 3:00 p.m the Trump Media Technology Options had stop traded again. What is the next 24 hours going to bring? Who knows. So many option traders follow this stock and most are afraid to buy either Call or Put Options on it because their premiums are so expensive. If Trumph wins the stock should soar and if he loses the stock will tank. The option premiums are priced expensively in both directions. Here now is how both the Calls and Puts traded on the opening today. First the Calls six minutes into the opening. Now the Puts. Now a look at how these options played the day. With a "stop trading" situation the option session ended a little bit early as evidenced in these following readings. Notice also how low the open interest number is in these Puts. Option traders for the most part opted to stay away from this situation. Now this. Trump wins. Here is how the 38 series of Calls traded just after the opening at 10:11 a.m.. The stock is up however the...
Read more

Another Earnings Report - "Roku" - Thursdays and Friday Trading.

Image
Please read this Roku "earnings report" blog. Roku was down fifteen dollars in the first hour of trading today after the release of it's third quarter earnings report. Here is a 10:52 a.m. look at one series of Puts that doubled in price on the opening as a result of this sell off. In my last blog on Caterpillar I talked about points of inflection where stocks rebound after bad news. This time an inflection point may not be in the cards. Caterpillars earning were just shy of expections but nothing had really changed. The world still needs their products and they are still a dominant player in their industry. Roku is a different animal. Their subscribers are a fickle bunch. Companies like Roku and Netflix go up and down all the time. Roku now is just back to a level at which it was trading at earlier this year. I don't know how to interpret their financial statements. Things still look pretty good for them to me. Once again here is a look at the increase in the value...
Read more