Featured

"End Of The Day" Friday Option Trading On Tesla

Back on April 2nd I did a blog called "Two Hour End Of Week Option Trading on Tesla". In that blog it was noted that Tesla dropped in price starting at 1:30 p.m. and 42 minutes later it was $5.95 lower in price, approaching the "must-get-out" at 3:00 p.m. mandated option deadline. Put option buyers getting in around 2:00 p.m. did well on their investments. (The stock was down $20.67 on the day). Here was it's chart on that day. It was a Thursday with Friday being Good Friday. Now let's fast forward to today's action, it being the following Friday. Tesla options had a tough start to the day. Here an example of what I am talking about. Look at the 347.50 series of Calls at 12:34 p.m. Are you able to see how they are down in price on the day? Now this. A look at how these same options closed out the day. They charged back upwards towards the close. The $140.00 option price we were looking at was actually a 4:00 p.m. readout. This chart shows Tesla tradi...
Post a Comment

LiveWire

My last blog was about Harley Davidson and what I didn't bring into the conservation was their spin off business which is building electric motorcycles. To be honest these bikes are not getting rave reviews. Two complaints are their crippling range and the possible issue of them being more dangerous to drive because they are so quiet. There is also competion from abroad. Last quarter they built only 63 of them and that experience is part of the company expecting to incur a loss of over $115 million this year. If you do the math each bike built cost them over $200,00.00. A $115 million dollar loss vs a profit of $1.3 billion for Harley Davidison. That loss makes a small dent in the overall big picture and in the process of getting going they used other people's money. Nursing this project to life from a business point of view has merit. Covid didn't help anything. LiveWire has to go slow until the product itself evolves to a level they feel proud to put their name on. Investors know this companies pedigree. See it's chart and read this.
Now go back to the previous blog on Harley Davidson. Put this puzzle together anyway you want. Forcasting of 750 units on the low end is still a three fold increase in production levels from where they are at now. Could they turn to be profitable in the next 1,000 days? Maybe. Yes there are options on LiveWire. Here are the Oct20th/2024 Calls with a striking price of 7.5 and 10 dollars. That's as far out as you can go and no one is trying to play them. The bids and asks are to far apart.
Keep in mind the company will continue to lose money all year. What a muddle. There are easlier games to play.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Waiting For A Drop On The Opening On Bad News - Eli Lilly

Image
Here is the bad news. The company is Eli Lilly. How bad is this news? Well look at it trading in the premarkets. So what do I think? I think the news is a setback of sorts, but not really all that bad. The stock is going to open lower, that's a given. It's like trying to play Boeing after an announcement that an airplane has crashed. So the stock is going to crash and it might have a small rebound and then it's going to slide down some more. A test of sorts will happen sometime in the afternoon. It might stock falling but then where will it go from there? The best case scenario is a recognition that investors got it all wrong and the stock ends up flat on the day. Yet there might be more of a downward dumping of the stock on the close followed by a selloff on tomorrows opening. Should option players be jumping in to play the upside on next week's Calls? That is the question. Here is a look at Boeing on the days after a crash. Day two after the crash was equally as ...
Read more

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-ma...
Read more

News on Polestar , Lucid (Trading After A Reverse Stock Split) Plus Ford News And Vinfast

Image
Look at the one year chart on Polester. Now it's one month chart. What's going on? It's confusing. It was down $.36 cents on the week. If you want you can spend $.20 or $.25 on Puts and hope that the company goes under in the next five or six months. They recently raised more money by releasing more shares so it's running out of options. You can't run at a loss forever and this news will most likely scare off potential new car buyers. This actually is a low number of outstanding Put options. The consensus seems to be that it is not game over yet. Lucid started trading this week on a "one-for-ten" reverse stock split. Here is its one week chart. It was down $1.39 on the week. It's also going to struggle. Both of these stocks have challenges ahead. On a more positive note here is a chart that looks kind of perky. Ford on the week. The stock was down $.03 cents on the week and it was the 3th highest in share volume trading on the NYSE. It appears...
Read more