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Caterpillar Has It's biggest One Day Drop Of The Year

Look at this five day chart. At 9:45 a.m. yesterday Caterpillar was trading at $720.49 and then 3:51 Hours later it was trading at $676.95. That's an interday drop of $43.49 or a $12.40 per hour drop. What caused the drop? Yes it was reported that an individual in upper management sold seven million dollars worth of his stock however that shouldn't rattle the stock that much. Maybe the fellow needed the money to put an addition on his house. Did the stock sell off because the companies most recent earnings report, afterall after closer inspections wasn't all that great? I follow Caterpillar closely and panic sell off situations like this should be a message to management to better explain to it's shareholders the complexities of it's operating realities. The bottom line is that going forward, option premiums charged for "out-of-the-money" options will have to go up to better reflect the possibities of future events like this happening. One possible solut...
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LiveWire

My last blog was about Harley Davidson and what I didn't bring into the conservation was their spin off business which is building electric motorcycles. To be honest these bikes are not getting rave reviews. Two complaints are their crippling range and the possible issue of them being more dangerous to drive because they are so quiet. There is also competion from abroad. Last quarter they built only 63 of them and that experience is part of the company expecting to incur a loss of over $115 million this year. If you do the math each bike built cost them over $200,00.00. A $115 million dollar loss vs a profit of $1.3 billion for Harley Davidison. That loss makes a small dent in the overall big picture and in the process of getting going they used other people's money. Nursing this project to life from a business point of view has merit. Covid didn't help anything. LiveWire has to go slow until the product itself evolves to a level they feel proud to put their name on. Investors know this companies pedigree. See it's chart and read this.
Now go back to the previous blog on Harley Davidson. Put this puzzle together anyway you want. Forcasting of 750 units on the low end is still a three fold increase in production levels from where they are at now. Could they turn to be profitable in the next 1,000 days? Maybe. Yes there are options on LiveWire. Here are the Oct20th/2024 Calls with a striking price of 7.5 and 10 dollars. That's as far out as you can go and no one is trying to play them. The bids and asks are to far apart.
Keep in mind the company will continue to lose money all year. What a muddle. There are easlier games to play.

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