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A Classic Tesla Friday Option Day Story

So Tesla moves up in the first few minutes of trading on a Friday and quickly decides to go south. The DJIA closed down on the day 685 points. Here is how one series of Puts, the 425 series of traded on the day. A low of $4.11, the price the 425 Puts just after the opening and a closing price of $33.90. More surprising were the "out-of-the-money 410 Puts. A low of $.33 and a high of $21.28. The most extreme gain was with the 392.50 Puts which has a low of $.03 or three dollars a contract and a high of $4.12 or four hundred and twelve dollares. Do the math of that one. How many times has this website talked trading "one-day-until-expiring-options" on Tesla options. The answer is many times. There was news this week about Musk raising 75 billion dollars for "Space X" and in doing so is selling out only 4-5% of this new company. Musk is the richest man in the world. Powerful people can make powerful moves. So what's my point? My point is that the option mark...
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LiveWire

My last blog was about Harley Davidson and what I didn't bring into the conservation was their spin off business which is building electric motorcycles. To be honest these bikes are not getting rave reviews. Two complaints are their crippling range and the possible issue of them being more dangerous to drive because they are so quiet. There is also competion from abroad. Last quarter they built only 63 of them and that experience is part of the company expecting to incur a loss of over $115 million this year. If you do the math each bike built cost them over $200,00.00. A $115 million dollar loss vs a profit of $1.3 billion for Harley Davidison. That loss makes a small dent in the overall big picture and in the process of getting going they used other people's money. Nursing this project to life from a business point of view has merit. Covid didn't help anything. LiveWire has to go slow until the product itself evolves to a level they feel proud to put their name on. Investors know this companies pedigree. See it's chart and read this.
Now go back to the previous blog on Harley Davidson. Put this puzzle together anyway you want. Forcasting of 750 units on the low end is still a three fold increase in production levels from where they are at now. Could they turn to be profitable in the next 1,000 days? Maybe. Yes there are options on LiveWire. Here are the Oct20th/2024 Calls with a striking price of 7.5 and 10 dollars. That's as far out as you can go and no one is trying to play them. The bids and asks are to far apart.
Keep in mind the company will continue to lose money all year. What a muddle. There are easlier games to play.

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