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Tesla Calls On A Friday That Expire On Monday

It's the same topic I posted last Friday. Today is Independence Day and the markets are closed. For this reason we can't really talk about mimicking last last Friday's trading. Here is it's five day chart. As you can see Tesla dropped on Thursday. Here is a look at how one series of Telsa's Puts traded on Thursday. Now look at the pricing on this one series of "slightly-out-of-the-money" Tesla Calls as of Thursday's close. These Calls would let you be in all of Monday's trading action. Is the price of $4.60 a contract a fair price? Well consider these two points. One day swings in stocks in general in the $400.00 price range can be significant. This five day chart of Tesla below shows you how it jumped $32.13 last Monday! The second point is that long weekends (three full days of no market trading) are know to cause market resets. Stocks like Exxon can get whipped around. That's what makes the pricings on all options now so difficult to gau...
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LiveWire

My last blog was about Harley Davidson and what I didn't bring into the conservation was their spin off business which is building electric motorcycles. To be honest these bikes are not getting rave reviews. Two complaints are their crippling range and the possible issue of them being more dangerous to drive because they are so quiet. There is also competion from abroad. Last quarter they built only 63 of them and that experience is part of the company expecting to incur a loss of over $115 million this year. If you do the math each bike built cost them over $200,00.00. A $115 million dollar loss vs a profit of $1.3 billion for Harley Davidison. That loss makes a small dent in the overall big picture and in the process of getting going they used other people's money. Nursing this project to life from a business point of view has merit. Covid didn't help anything. LiveWire has to go slow until the product itself evolves to a level they feel proud to put their name on. Investors know this companies pedigree. See it's chart and read this.
Now go back to the previous blog on Harley Davidson. Put this puzzle together anyway you want. Forcasting of 750 units on the low end is still a three fold increase in production levels from where they are at now. Could they turn to be profitable in the next 1,000 days? Maybe. Yes there are options on LiveWire. Here are the Oct20th/2024 Calls with a striking price of 7.5 and 10 dollars. That's as far out as you can go and no one is trying to play them. The bids and asks are to far apart.
Keep in mind the company will continue to lose money all year. What a muddle. There are easlier games to play.

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