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Lucid Had Another Scare

Look at this big bump in the road. A spike down to $2.45. at 1:44:59.p.m. on a Tuesday followed by a full rebound. It's never good news when things like thus happen. There were rumors of it going into bankruptcy which the company quickly denied. Was someone purposely spreading this rumor for self serving reasons? From my point of view the uncertainty caused by this occurance adds an extra layer compexity to the long journey that this company endured. Will institutional traders worried about liquidity issues and the preservation of capital change their attitudes on this stock? Traders, for reasons I don't understand seemed to quickly brush this incident off. The company has recently raised more money and has cash on hand. Production numbers in 2025 were somewhere around 16,000 units and are now estimated to be around 21,000 units in 2026? This nervous dip muddies up the waters around this company. In the bigger picture this stock offers investors an opportunity to bet on a rebo...
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LiveWire

My last blog was about Harley Davidson and what I didn't bring into the conservation was their spin off business which is building electric motorcycles. To be honest these bikes are not getting rave reviews. Two complaints are their crippling range and the possible issue of them being more dangerous to drive because they are so quiet. There is also competion from abroad. Last quarter they built only 63 of them and that experience is part of the company expecting to incur a loss of over $115 million this year. If you do the math each bike built cost them over $200,00.00. A $115 million dollar loss vs a profit of $1.3 billion for Harley Davidison. That loss makes a small dent in the overall big picture and in the process of getting going they used other people's money. Nursing this project to life from a business point of view has merit. Covid didn't help anything. LiveWire has to go slow until the product itself evolves to a level they feel proud to put their name on. Investors know this companies pedigree. See it's chart and read this.
Now go back to the previous blog on Harley Davidson. Put this puzzle together anyway you want. Forcasting of 750 units on the low end is still a three fold increase in production levels from where they are at now. Could they turn to be profitable in the next 1,000 days? Maybe. Yes there are options on LiveWire. Here are the Oct20th/2024 Calls with a striking price of 7.5 and 10 dollars. That's as far out as you can go and no one is trying to play them. The bids and asks are to far apart.
Keep in mind the company will continue to lose money all year. What a muddle. There are easlier games to play.

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