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Looking For Something To Buy On A Tuesday Afternoon?

Trumph says the war is over but is it? Exxon sells off on that news. Does this make the Calls a good buying opportunity? It's 2:38 p.m.. The Calls shown below expire in two days. Moves downwards this much in a one day time period are somewhat rare. Let's see what happens. This leads us to a new topic. Overtrading. Avid daytraders can pick the days they like to trade the best. I like Fridays for it's one day options and for it's late in the day look at it's "next-week-out-options" which might at that point of the day be somewhat mispriced. Resets in pricings can sometimes happen over the weekend which become apparent in the first few hour or so of Monday morning trading. I also like Wednesday for mid week reversals. The biggest trap are Thursday options that expire the following day. These are the ones that seem to lose the "time value" aspect of the equation the most quickly. Finally Tuesday options that expire the next day, or two days away o...
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LiveWire

My last blog was about Harley Davidson and what I didn't bring into the conservation was their spin off business which is building electric motorcycles. To be honest these bikes are not getting rave reviews. Two complaints are their crippling range and the possible issue of them being more dangerous to drive because they are so quiet. There is also competion from abroad. Last quarter they built only 63 of them and that experience is part of the company expecting to incur a loss of over $115 million this year. If you do the math each bike built cost them over $200,00.00. A $115 million dollar loss vs a profit of $1.3 billion for Harley Davidison. That loss makes a small dent in the overall big picture and in the process of getting going they used other people's money. Nursing this project to life from a business point of view has merit. Covid didn't help anything. LiveWire has to go slow until the product itself evolves to a level they feel proud to put their name on. Investors know this companies pedigree. See it's chart and read this.
Now go back to the previous blog on Harley Davidson. Put this puzzle together anyway you want. Forcasting of 750 units on the low end is still a three fold increase in production levels from where they are at now. Could they turn to be profitable in the next 1,000 days? Maybe. Yes there are options on LiveWire. Here are the Oct20th/2024 Calls with a striking price of 7.5 and 10 dollars. That's as far out as you can go and no one is trying to play them. The bids and asks are to far apart.
Keep in mind the company will continue to lose money all year. What a muddle. There are easlier games to play.

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