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Walmart And Costco

It's Thursday morning on January 8th. Walmart opened down. But look at how Costco opened up. This time I am showing it's five day chart. A first, no one really new why but then news like below surfaced. I was also searching for the news as I knew something had to be up. At one point in the morning Costco was up over $40.00. So Walmart is dropping and Costco is really shooting up. At some point Walmart has to turn around to catch some of this positive spinoff. Look at how the 100 series of Call options on Walmart shifted gears at 10:00 a.m.. Do these two stocks always trade in harmony with each other? Obviously not but there comes a time when some sort of a cause-and- effect becomes apparent. At exactly 10:00 a.m. this morning there was a realization that Walmart had to change it's direction to stay in tune with what it's big brother Costco was doing. At that time the 110 series of Calls which would be expiring the next day traded down to $90.00 per contract. Now...
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LiveWire

My last blog was about Harley Davidson and what I didn't bring into the conservation was their spin off business which is building electric motorcycles. To be honest these bikes are not getting rave reviews. Two complaints are their crippling range and the possible issue of them being more dangerous to drive because they are so quiet. There is also competion from abroad. Last quarter they built only 63 of them and that experience is part of the company expecting to incur a loss of over $115 million this year. If you do the math each bike built cost them over $200,00.00. A $115 million dollar loss vs a profit of $1.3 billion for Harley Davidison. That loss makes a small dent in the overall big picture and in the process of getting going they used other people's money. Nursing this project to life from a business point of view has merit. Covid didn't help anything. LiveWire has to go slow until the product itself evolves to a level they feel proud to put their name on. Investors know this companies pedigree. See it's chart and read this.
Now go back to the previous blog on Harley Davidson. Put this puzzle together anyway you want. Forcasting of 750 units on the low end is still a three fold increase in production levels from where they are at now. Could they turn to be profitable in the next 1,000 days? Maybe. Yes there are options on LiveWire. Here are the Oct20th/2024 Calls with a striking price of 7.5 and 10 dollars. That's as far out as you can go and no one is trying to play them. The bids and asks are to far apart.
Keep in mind the company will continue to lose money all year. What a muddle. There are easlier games to play.

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