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Caterpillar Jumps On The Opening

Can you fight it? ... Why would you want to? It's not like the Stellantis opportunity we had on Monday morning. Is the stock running out of momentum? Now this less than an hour later. Caterpillar takes a hit. When Caterpillar goes up $30.00 in fourteen minutes and you catch it on the downside just take it and run. I will show you below how it closed the day. Now a trading comment. It's difficult to fight rising stocks and in hindsight the answer to Caterpillar's meteoric rise would be in holding it's thirty days Calls purchased in the recent past. Today's situation was a mid week option trade, the day of the week I have often said to be the day of reversals. Caterpillar jumped on no news and Deere just sputtered along. It's largely insituational trading and various analyist are bullish on the stock. If this kind of a jump happened on a Thursday or Friday I wouldn't be trying to play it for the downside. This was a one-off situation, something like t...
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LiveWire

My last blog was about Harley Davidson and what I didn't bring into the conservation was their spin off business which is building electric motorcycles. To be honest these bikes are not getting rave reviews. Two complaints are their crippling range and the possible issue of them being more dangerous to drive because they are so quiet. There is also competion from abroad. Last quarter they built only 63 of them and that experience is part of the company expecting to incur a loss of over $115 million this year. If you do the math each bike built cost them over $200,00.00. A $115 million dollar loss vs a profit of $1.3 billion for Harley Davidison. That loss makes a small dent in the overall big picture and in the process of getting going they used other people's money. Nursing this project to life from a business point of view has merit. Covid didn't help anything. LiveWire has to go slow until the product itself evolves to a level they feel proud to put their name on. Investors know this companies pedigree. See it's chart and read this.
Now go back to the previous blog on Harley Davidson. Put this puzzle together anyway you want. Forcasting of 750 units on the low end is still a three fold increase in production levels from where they are at now. Could they turn to be profitable in the next 1,000 days? Maybe. Yes there are options on LiveWire. Here are the Oct20th/2024 Calls with a striking price of 7.5 and 10 dollars. That's as far out as you can go and no one is trying to play them. The bids and asks are to far apart.
Keep in mind the company will continue to lose money all year. What a muddle. There are easlier games to play.

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