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The Trap On Costco With One Day To Go "Call" Options

Let's start by saying it's 3:00 p.m. on Thursday and I am going to talk about the big sell off that Costco experienced this morning on news that seemed to take some time to be disceminated. It turned out to be regular stuff kind of news on the subject matter of last month's food sales. In the early few minutes of trading the average retail trader had no knowledge of what this news was all about. Opening markets started falling quickly. That sometimes happens. Let's move forward to 3:03 p.m.. Costco is way down in price $28.00. That's a big chunk. Might it's Call options rebound tomorrow? I don't usually find these "looking-for-a-rebound" situations to be very profitable. Might there be a second wave of opening selling pressure on the opening tomorrow?. That's the worry. Now there is more to the story that option traders might want to hear. It has to do with what happened this morning. Costco had a great fall. Look at this morning chart. It l...
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LiveWire

My last blog was about Harley Davidson and what I didn't bring into the conservation was their spin off business which is building electric motorcycles. To be honest these bikes are not getting rave reviews. Two complaints are their crippling range and the possible issue of them being more dangerous to drive because they are so quiet. There is also competion from abroad. Last quarter they built only 63 of them and that experience is part of the company expecting to incur a loss of over $115 million this year. If you do the math each bike built cost them over $200,00.00. A $115 million dollar loss vs a profit of $1.3 billion for Harley Davidison. That loss makes a small dent in the overall big picture and in the process of getting going they used other people's money. Nursing this project to life from a business point of view has merit. Covid didn't help anything. LiveWire has to go slow until the product itself evolves to a level they feel proud to put their name on. Investors know this companies pedigree. See it's chart and read this.
Now go back to the previous blog on Harley Davidson. Put this puzzle together anyway you want. Forcasting of 750 units on the low end is still a three fold increase in production levels from where they are at now. Could they turn to be profitable in the next 1,000 days? Maybe. Yes there are options on LiveWire. Here are the Oct20th/2024 Calls with a striking price of 7.5 and 10 dollars. That's as far out as you can go and no one is trying to play them. The bids and asks are to far apart.
Keep in mind the company will continue to lose money all year. What a muddle. There are easlier games to play.

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