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Ford Motor Company Options

Ford was on a role. On a role that is until their reputation for poor quality control came back to haunt them. In the recent past it was basking in the new news it was entering into a new tranformational era. A new division, "Ford Energy" is going to start making lithium iron phosphate battery cells. Telsa and G.M are also on a similiar path. The stock surged on this news. This week a different reality set in. Yet another massive recall. This time 770,000 vehicles were recalled with one fix available by August and a second fix not available until April of 2027. Now look at it's three month chart. On this news option traders have jumped into the Puts. Look at the open interest in these two series of December options ... Now it's five day chart. Money was made on playing the downside in a 24 hour period of time after the recall news came out. This news came out June 30th and the biggest drop happened into the next morning's trading session. You really have to wat...
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LiveWire

My last blog was about Harley Davidson and what I didn't bring into the conservation was their spin off business which is building electric motorcycles. To be honest these bikes are not getting rave reviews. Two complaints are their crippling range and the possible issue of them being more dangerous to drive because they are so quiet. There is also competion from abroad. Last quarter they built only 63 of them and that experience is part of the company expecting to incur a loss of over $115 million this year. If you do the math each bike built cost them over $200,00.00. A $115 million dollar loss vs a profit of $1.3 billion for Harley Davidison. That loss makes a small dent in the overall big picture and in the process of getting going they used other people's money. Nursing this project to life from a business point of view has merit. Covid didn't help anything. LiveWire has to go slow until the product itself evolves to a level they feel proud to put their name on. Investors know this companies pedigree. See it's chart and read this.
Now go back to the previous blog on Harley Davidson. Put this puzzle together anyway you want. Forcasting of 750 units on the low end is still a three fold increase in production levels from where they are at now. Could they turn to be profitable in the next 1,000 days? Maybe. Yes there are options on LiveWire. Here are the Oct20th/2024 Calls with a striking price of 7.5 and 10 dollars. That's as far out as you can go and no one is trying to play them. The bids and asks are to far apart.
Keep in mind the company will continue to lose money all year. What a muddle. There are easlier games to play.

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