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The Falling Off A Cliff Chart. I.B.M.

I.b.m. had a bad week. Here is how bad it was. Sometimes you see charts like this. It was down $74.89 on the week. What happened? The headlines said "I.B.M. just sent a warning to dividend investors". Something about it missing earnings forecasts because of an artificial-intelligence-related shift in it's customers spending. That is a new one that we don't hear very often. Which way is this stock going to now move? It's probably dumb to be chasing this when the outcome will most likely be all so random. Let's share the experience together. Here is what the Calls and Puts closest to what the stock is trading at are doing going into Monday morning's action. Don't gasp and say that the premiums exorbitant? They are not. Something is happening in our markets. I.B.M. got a real shakeout. Which way do you play it? Buying in on a Friday and cashing out on the following Monday morning opening would be one way however that opportunity is now missed. These opt...
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LiveWire

My last blog was about Harley Davidson and what I didn't bring into the conservation was their spin off business which is building electric motorcycles. To be honest these bikes are not getting rave reviews. Two complaints are their crippling range and the possible issue of them being more dangerous to drive because they are so quiet. There is also competion from abroad. Last quarter they built only 63 of them and that experience is part of the company expecting to incur a loss of over $115 million this year. If you do the math each bike built cost them over $200,00.00. A $115 million dollar loss vs a profit of $1.3 billion for Harley Davidison. That loss makes a small dent in the overall big picture and in the process of getting going they used other people's money. Nursing this project to life from a business point of view has merit. Covid didn't help anything. LiveWire has to go slow until the product itself evolves to a level they feel proud to put their name on. Investors know this companies pedigree. See it's chart and read this.
Now go back to the previous blog on Harley Davidson. Put this puzzle together anyway you want. Forcasting of 750 units on the low end is still a three fold increase in production levels from where they are at now. Could they turn to be profitable in the next 1,000 days? Maybe. Yes there are options on LiveWire. Here are the Oct20th/2024 Calls with a striking price of 7.5 and 10 dollars. That's as far out as you can go and no one is trying to play them. The bids and asks are to far apart.
Keep in mind the company will continue to lose money all year. What a muddle. There are easlier games to play.

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