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Caterpillar Puts On A Friday Morning

I am getting some flack from people saying I should have called this site CatCalls and not CatPuts. Oh well, I saved money by going with name Catputs. Now this. Caterpillar closed at $647.18 on Thursday and jumped to $655.54 at 9:47 a.m. on Friday morning. Then it dropped to 641.44, the low of the day at 10:43 a.m. which was 56 minutes later. That's a massive price swing. Looking for price swings on one day options are not normal trades to be thinking about. I get that Look at how this one series of Puts reacted. Option trader as I have often mentioned are afraid to play options on Caterpillar as it defies logic and continues to go up in price. It has an earnings report coming out at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday January 29th. Try and listen to their conference call. Profits may not be as rich as some people are expecting. Input costs have risen. Now let's look at the 650.00 Puts to see how they traded on the day. So few traders attempt to trade in them. Look at the super low open i...
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LiveWire

My last blog was about Harley Davidson and what I didn't bring into the conservation was their spin off business which is building electric motorcycles. To be honest these bikes are not getting rave reviews. Two complaints are their crippling range and the possible issue of them being more dangerous to drive because they are so quiet. There is also competion from abroad. Last quarter they built only 63 of them and that experience is part of the company expecting to incur a loss of over $115 million this year. If you do the math each bike built cost them over $200,00.00. A $115 million dollar loss vs a profit of $1.3 billion for Harley Davidison. That loss makes a small dent in the overall big picture and in the process of getting going they used other people's money. Nursing this project to life from a business point of view has merit. Covid didn't help anything. LiveWire has to go slow until the product itself evolves to a level they feel proud to put their name on. Investors know this companies pedigree. See it's chart and read this.
Now go back to the previous blog on Harley Davidson. Put this puzzle together anyway you want. Forcasting of 750 units on the low end is still a three fold increase in production levels from where they are at now. Could they turn to be profitable in the next 1,000 days? Maybe. Yes there are options on LiveWire. Here are the Oct20th/2024 Calls with a striking price of 7.5 and 10 dollars. That's as far out as you can go and no one is trying to play them. The bids and asks are to far apart.
Keep in mind the company will continue to lose money all year. What a muddle. There are easlier games to play.

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