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Walmart Starting With 2:25 p.m. On A Monday. It's Christmas Week.

First the one day chart. The markets on the day are down. Now it's Puts at 2:25 p.m. Now it's closing price. Now Tuesday morning. In some ways we are wasting our time watching what seems to sideways motion. Is this what successful option trading is all about? It's not like watching Tesla or Caterpillar coming out with earning reports, or watching Boeing jump up in price over the last few weeks. There really isn't any reason to be in this position, other than the indexes are down for the second day in a row. With the clock ticking away at you is this a good time to be risking your capital? Not really. It is a struggle. Now let's look at Walmart at the end of the day on Tuesday. The stock went down in value on the day as did the Puts. Yes the time value is going down which partially to blame but the indexes also had less of a drop than they did on the previous day. These are quiet markets during this holiday period with fewer news reports coming out. Let's...
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LiveWire

My last blog was about Harley Davidson and what I didn't bring into the conservation was their spin off business which is building electric motorcycles. To be honest these bikes are not getting rave reviews. Two complaints are their crippling range and the possible issue of them being more dangerous to drive because they are so quiet. There is also competion from abroad. Last quarter they built only 63 of them and that experience is part of the company expecting to incur a loss of over $115 million this year. If you do the math each bike built cost them over $200,00.00. A $115 million dollar loss vs a profit of $1.3 billion for Harley Davidison. That loss makes a small dent in the overall big picture and in the process of getting going they used other people's money. Nursing this project to life from a business point of view has merit. Covid didn't help anything. LiveWire has to go slow until the product itself evolves to a level they feel proud to put their name on. Investors know this companies pedigree. See it's chart and read this.
Now go back to the previous blog on Harley Davidson. Put this puzzle together anyway you want. Forcasting of 750 units on the low end is still a three fold increase in production levels from where they are at now. Could they turn to be profitable in the next 1,000 days? Maybe. Yes there are options on LiveWire. Here are the Oct20th/2024 Calls with a striking price of 7.5 and 10 dollars. That's as far out as you can go and no one is trying to play them. The bids and asks are to far apart.
Keep in mind the company will continue to lose money all year. What a muddle. There are easlier games to play.

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