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How To Avoid Time Value Traps With Last Week Options.

This blog is not going to be an exhausting study of this topic. I just want to show you a few charts found in recent blogs and comment on which ones seem to skirt the issue of "time-value-concerns' and which ones don't. 1) Avoid Thursday at the close Call options. In this case Thursday is the second last day of the above chart. If you guess the wrong direction on the close it's going to be game over on Friday when the options expire. Thursday at the close on options that expire the next day are the biggest time value traps you can buy into. If the stock moves in the wrong direction it's game over. 2) Ford on a Monday going into Tuesday. On this chart April 13th is a Monday and Tuesday is the 14th. Can you see Ford closing strong on the close of the 13th? It would make sense to get in on the stong closing because these Calls would still have four trading days to recover if Tuesdays opening was not all that spectacular. 3) This time it's Caterpillar and it...
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The Trade Of The Year On Caterpillar Calls. It's No Surprise It Happened On A Friday

In a past blog Caterpillar averted a strike and it was noted that the stock jumped to the moon on that news. Caterpillar has a large following and likes good news-made in America stories. Biden avoided his government running out of money late Thursday and on Friday the stock Caterpillar jumped to the moon. It opened higher and kept going up.There is no looking back now at what happened.
My May 29th blog talked about how Caterpillar had slight bounce last Friday morning and the light volume of option trading on it. With the stock going sideways to down all that week playing Call options on it was out of fashion. Things changed on Friday June 2nd. Caterpillar bounced. So here now is a look at how two "out-of-the-money" series of Call options traded on it on Friday.
Look at the open interest numbers going into Friday. Two hundred and ninety five contracts. Few traders were expecting the news to come when it did. This blog could now go in many directions. Last week both Caterpillar and Boeing struggled on the week and option trading volumes dried up. My attitude was not to trade, to wait for better days. I should have known better, the system is a little bit corrupt. Insiders could gain the most from a late Thursday release of good news. A one day pop in the next days options. That is what happened. On Friday the D.J.I. was up over 700 points. The one day options on Caterpillar were star performers. It was the "trade-of-the-year" on Caterpillar Calls. It doesn't look like any of the 100,000 or whatever the number of brokers and analysis there are out were clued into this action. So strange. * Also think about this. Caterpillar has something like 109,100 employees. I don't understand why there isn't more traders in on this action.

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