Featured

Another Blog On "Vinfast"

There is so much to read about this companies history online. Do your own homework. Their success is not dependent on what ends up happening with their sales in North America. They are nimble. There are plenty of auto factories all over the world now for sale they can acquire. They have dabbled in Australia. Having access to money to keep going doesn't seem to be their problem. Rivian also seems to enjoy this advantage. Vinfast is currently building a new plant in India which could employ thousands of people. That's an emerging new market. New relationships are being built and new investors will be coming onboard. Are option players looking at this stock? Not really if we look at these "one-month-out" Calls. What about Calls further out? What about next January? Here is a look at the three and four series of Calls. Nobody seems willing to bet Vinfast Calls. Now this. Here are two snippets taken from a blog I wrote about this stock back in early December of 2024. ...
Post a Comment

Caterpillar Calls. Our last Blog Was About Caterpillars Calls A Week Ago Last Friday. Here We Are Now Talking About The Same Thing.

The open interest numbers in Caterpillar Calls last week was negligible. Here is a look at the Caterpillar 237.5O Calls at 12:14 P.M. a week ago Friday. Look at the open interest number. It's next to nothing.
Now here is a look at one series of Caterpillar calls, this time the 250 Calls at 11:53 A.M. last Friday Nov 17th. They were up over 300% in that morning's trading action and the stock was up $16.00 in one week! What I find so strange is that so few traders were using Call options to catch this strong directional move. The surge in the stocks price was afterall one of the largest "one week" surges this year. All of the short term, mid term and long term Call options exploded upwards in price. Here is a look at the Caterpillar 250 Calls at 11:23 a.m. which where to expire that same day. Yes the open interest numbers were up a touch however they were still next to nothing.
Here now is a five day look at it's trading.
Now a 30 day look at this stock.
So why once again are so few option traders playing them? Why not just focus on this one stock? It baffles me. Things to ponder. 1) In 2022 Caterpillar had 109,100 employees. Why wouldn't at least 200 or 500 hundred of them watch the option market on their companies stock and jump in and use Calls and Puts as trading vehicles at times like this when the stock is hot? 2) Rebuilding the damages caused by wars and global warming. Caterpillar has to be there. Goverments will find the money needed to rebuild all that is destroyed. 3) The short position in Caterpillar. It's somewhere around 1.3% of the float or the short interest ratio / days to cover is 2.5 days. That's nothing. When this stock decides to move up for whatever reason there is nothing really to hold it back. Boeing jumped a chunk today on an analyst upgrade. Analysts are more prone to do that in good markets. If Caterpillar could jump 15 of 20 dollars why can't Boeing? That's logical thinking.
$270 from $204. Announcements of $220 from $204 are more the norm. Deere is yet another stock to watch for price swings. Options that expire in 30 days seem to be best to play in markets like this.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Living on Kraft Dinner?

Image
What does the word disconnect mean? As a verb it means "to sever or interrupt the connection of or between; detach". Option trading - one day options - is a disconnect from the world. What happens to slightly "out-of-the-money" Call options on Costco when the stock shoot up thirty dollars on the day? I will show you what happened on Friday to Costco Calls and the options on a few other stocks I frequently watch. What a disconnect from the real world. But before that a look at how the indexes traded. 1) Costco. It's five day chart and a look at how three of it's option series moved upwards in one day. You may not know how to read these printouts but try to read the highs and lows on these option pricings. One printout shows an "at-the-money" option which means you are buying a contract on the stock, good for one day only at a locked in price equal to (or very close to) what the stock is currently trading at. The other two contracts shown are ...
Read more

The Little Engine That Could

Image
Walmart again. It's all I seem to blog about. Here is it's five day chart. The stock keeps going up and the option series are set up in one dollar spreads. Even a fifty cent move on the stock moves the needle on these Calls. Look at how this series of Calls was trading yesterday at 3:00 p.m.. Now here is this same series of Calls just before noon today. Thirty days of upward action like this punctuated by the off day of decline. Now notice the higher volume of trading in the series of Calls with the higher striking price. These are the ones's with more leverage. At the same time look at the five day chart on Costco. The two stocks sometimes trade in tandem. Humpty dumpty sat on a wall .... a had a great fall. Someday soon a fall might happen but what a great ride it has been.
Read more

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slighty out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-mas...
Read more