Featured

A Random Walk In The Park On A Monday Morning. A Caution. Monday Mornings Are Often Not An Option Players Best Friend

Let's start with this. It's now 10:26 a.m. A bet on Caterpillar rebounding by the end of the week. There are no takers. Why have to watch the screen for the next four days in agony waiting for a rebound which if happens is just a "break even trade"? But Wait. I made a mistake. The market is actually now down 668 points. What else can we look at? Interactive Brokers. These kind of stocks always do poorly on days with the threat of margin calls. Yet there is something interesting about the printout I am about to show. It is that these options are "one-month-out" Calls. These longer term options trade differently than short term options. (these options trade in one month intervals). If the stock we are following stops it's freefall the value of the options will nudge up ten, fifteen or twenty percent. A seven dollar option Call might creep back up to $8.00 or $9.00 at which time it could be sold. In contrast with a five day option a slight reversal in ...
Post a Comment

Ford and The Issue of Paying Commissions on Ford Option Trades.

This blog cost me like $35.00 to post but I am doing it to make a point. In the U.S. you can trade options for free but not in Canada. The example I am about to show you illustrates how Canadian option traders are treated unfairly, to the point of preventing us from trading in one very lucrative segment of the option market. I have talked about this before. To what am I referring? Trading options priced at one dollar to twenty dollars. Here is one example of what I am talking about.
So I bought one Call for $17.00 U.S. plus a hefty commission. What a dumb trade to make. Today is Tuesday and it expires this Friday. On Thursday the markets are closed for Thanksgiving and they are closed half the day on Friday. Time in this position will quickly become a concern. Yet Friday mornings can sometimes suprise. Here is some news that caused it to drop.
Ford frequently has news and here is what the one day chart looks like.
Was it bad news? Not really. They are committed to building a plant in Michigan and the EV news is constantly evolving. The pace of growth is slowing slightly on the EV side but new vehicle sales are up twelve percent year-over-year. So odd are the early morning trading action was a tad of an oversell. Here also is how these Call options ended up trading on the day.
So what is my beef? If I lived in the U.S. I could have purchased 100 contracts for $1,700 and sold them for $2,100 and not lost any sleep and pocketed $400.00. The liquidity and tight spreads are there. In Canada there is a charge of $1.00 per contract in and $1.00 per contract out plus another ten dollars or so in and out or about $220.00 dollars owing in commissions. That's crazy. I could go into a rant as to why the system is set up that way however it wouldn't do any good. Simply put, the Canadian brokerage industry needs massive amounts of upgrading to wake up our capital markets. Letting money flow freely is what ulimately makes the capital markets stronger. Check back in later to see how this scenario plays itself out. Okay. Now for a correction. This blog only cost me $1.25 to post. I got out the next morning at 10:49 a.m.at $.36.
See this chart as for the timing when I got out.
I just wanted to get out to get my money back and prove my point. Boy I wish I could trade without having to pay commisions! A mid Friday morning update, the day these option expire. It would take courage to be still hanging onto these ones. Guess what, a pop on no news.
Playing options on stocks in the ten dollar range is somewhat challenging.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Living on Kraft Dinner?

Image
What does the word disconnect mean? As a verb it means "to sever or interrupt the connection of or between; detach". Option trading - one day options - is a disconnect from the world. What happens to slightly "out-of-the-money" Call options on Costco when the stock shoot up thirty dollars on the day? I will show you what happened on Friday to Costco Calls and the options on a few other stocks I frequently watch. What a disconnect from the real world. But before that a look at how the indexes traded. 1) Costco. It's five day chart and a look at how three of it's option series moved upwards in one day. You may not know how to read these printouts but try to read the highs and lows on these option pricings. One printout shows an "at-the-money" option which means you are buying a contract on the stock, good for one day only at a locked in price equal to (or very close to) what the stock is currently trading at. The other two contracts shown are ...
Read more

The Little Engine That Could

Image
Walmart again. It's all I seem to blog about. Here is it's five day chart. The stock keeps going up and the option series are set up in one dollar spreads. Even a fifty cent move on the stock moves the needle on these Calls. Look at how this series of Calls was trading yesterday at 3:00 p.m.. Now here is this same series of Calls just before noon today. Thirty days of upward action like this punctuated by the off day of decline. Now notice the higher volume of trading in the series of Calls with the higher striking price. These are the ones's with more leverage. At the same time look at the five day chart on Costco. The two stocks sometimes trade in tandem. Humpty dumpty sat on a wall .... a had a great fall. Someday soon a fall might happen but what a great ride it has been.
Read more

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slighty out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-mas...
Read more