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Caterpillar Calls. Trying To Make It Simple

So if you like the stock Caterpillar and want to play the upside on it using options you could buy these ones. But why would you? They are up 46% on the day so the real money was made in buying them yesterday and selling them today. The stock would now have to go up about $25.00 in one month just to break even and everything above that price would be profits. If you now look at a thirty day chart you will see that's what it did last month. These are "one month-out" options which are ten dollars "in-the-money" and they trade in a different fashion than short term options. Yet that not what I want to talk about. I note that only 13 contracts traded on this series on the day and the open interest in them stands at only 11. What does this tell us? 1) It tells us that professional money managers are totally lacking in their understandings of the dynamics of option trading. 2) It tells us that retails traders are to some degree misguided by the learning materials ma...
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A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time.
Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen.
Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news.
Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-mas why not think about going short on Costco (buying Puts) to catch the January blues? Yet then again with interest rates potentially going down and fresh money coming into the market why are we thinking of Puts? Look at this article.
Look also at how this stock is opening as of late. Why try and fight a strong stock? I have never witnessed a five day trading pattern like this.
Let's look at a thirty day chart.
So the question now is are 30 day Puts better than 90 day Calls? Not really. In option trading it's best to sit on the sidelines when you think the markets are going in the wrong direction. This week the markets are in a holiday mode but next week could be a different story.**** A next week look at the same situation. Costco is down a chunk. The Puts were where the action was at.
When a strong stock dips it sometimes goes right back up again. Short term dips in this stock historically have not lasted very long. **** Now a January 5th 2024 update. First Disney. Here is a look at it's 2024 chart.
In our discussion of long term Call options yes the 95 series of Calls on Disney expiring in 2025 would have paid off nicely. What about Costco. How did it do in 2024? Here is it's one year chart.
It had clear sailing all year. Buying Calls on it last year when the stock was trading around $665.00 would have paid off big time. Long term options can sometimes be your best friend.

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