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A Random Walk In The Park On A Monday Morning. A Caution. Monday Mornings Are Often Not An Option Players Best Friend

Let's start with this. It's now 10:26 a.m. A bet on Caterpillar rebounding by the end of the week. There are no takers. Why have to watch the screen for the next four days in agony waiting for a rebound which if happens is just a "break even trade"? But Wait. I made a mistake. The market is actually now down 668 points. What else can we look at? Interactive Brokers. These kind of stocks always do poorly on days with the threat of margin calls. Yet there is something interesting about the printout I am about to show. It is that these options are "one-month-out" Calls. These longer term options trade differently than short term options. (these options trade in one month intervals). If the stock we are following stops it's freefall the value of the options will nudge up ten, fifteen or twenty percent. A seven dollar option Call might creep back up to $8.00 or $9.00 at which time it could be sold. In contrast with a five day option a slight reversal in ...
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A Santa Clause Rally in Boeing And Caterpillar And Others

It happened in the last thirty days.
Caterpillar was up $2.70 on the week and Boeing was up $10.83. These are both thirty day charts and as you can see both stocks have had huge runs.
So what next? Maybe it's time to splash some cold water on things. Here is a not so whimsical weekend report on Boeing.
Now look at how these three auto have done over the last run. Another Santa Clause rally.
All this keeps going. Look at Fedex, Costco and Home Depot over the last month.
So now what? Is the party soon coming to an end? Well here is the thing. These rallies are not exclusive to anyone stock. In a way that's kind of a bad thing. Each one of these individual stocks are up for non specific reasonings. Look at Walmart and it's one month chart. It's down when everything else seems to be up.
Why isn't Costco affected by this news?
The current news is that higher interest rates are here to stay. Strong jobs reports makes big rate cuts unlikely in 2024 and we are living in a more inflation prone world. Earning reports this year in general are healthy. But wait, things can change. We are bordering on a recession. I hate to ask this question but I am going to. If Walmart is down why is Costco up? It's a puzzle. (90% of the U.S. population lives within ten miles of a Walmart and the company has a broad customer base). Wouldn't they have their ears to the ground as to what is happenening? I am not a big fan of Costco Puts because the stock has a history of out outperforming the markets. At some point however on a strong uptick they might be something to consider. When it falls it can fall big/

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