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A Random Walk In The Park On A Monday Morning. A Caution. Monday Mornings Are Often Not An Option Players Best Friend

Let's start with this. It's now 10:26 a.m. A bet on Caterpillar rebounding by the end of the week. There are no takers. Why have to watch the screen for the next four days in agony waiting for a rebound which if happens is just a "break even trade"? But Wait. I made a mistake. The market is actually now down 668 points. What else can we look at? Interactive Brokers. These kind of stocks always do poorly on days with the threat of margin calls. Yet there is something interesting about the printout I am about to show. It is that these options are "one-month-out" Calls. These longer term options trade differently than short term options. (these options trade in one month intervals). If the stock we are following stops it's freefall the value of the options will nudge up ten, fifteen or twenty percent. A seven dollar option Call might creep back up to $8.00 or $9.00 at which time it could be sold. In contrast with a five day option a slight reversal in ...
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How Exxon Closed The Door On Option Traders Today

With Exxon we are dealing with a well oiled, well orchestrated machine. Every drop of oil and every trading derivative monitoring the flow of money surrounding oil is tightly scrutinized. Don't try to trade options on Exxon on Fridays that expire that very same day. You will get shut down. Here is a case in point. But wait. I take it all back. None of that is true at all. Look at this one printout which tells us so much.
At 12:08 p.m. here are the Exxon 104 Calls that expire for retail investors at 3:00 p.m. Look at how the contracts on the opening traded for under $.05 cents. It's noon and look at the profits which could have being made! A move of $.03 to $.37. Now here is the chart showing how Exxon traded on the day.
Now look at what the 104 Puts were trading at at 12:08 p.m.
Now this. Now it is time to change the title of this blog to How Exxon Didn't Close The Door On Option Traders Today. In fact, they left it wide open. Look at how Exxon dropped from 1:00 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. The 104 Puts that were trading for like $.25 cents at noon would have increased in price four fold in two hours. Here once again is a chart showing what Exxon slumped down to at 2:00 p.m.
It's easy to write blogs about things like this. The reality is that these kinds of trades are difficult to execute. I am just trying to open up your minds to the possibilities of what is out there. Come back soon and read more.  Let's jump ahead one week. It is now Thursday December 7th. Look at how it is down on the week.


Let's watch the action. These printouts are as of  11:50 a.m.

Let's now see what has happened at the end of the day.



Now here is it's five day chart.

Time now is working against the 100 series of Calls. Yet then again, it looks like it could bounce on the opening.   Here is the day ( a Friday ) action, well only the first 65 minutes of trading. Exxon is up $1.16. Here is a  look  the 100 series of Calls. Yes they are struggling but the Exxon 99 series of Calls had a nice bounce. Yes you can play short term Call options on this stock with only one day to go.


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