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Trying to Outguess The Markets

A few years back the markets crashed when Russia invaded Ukraine. The front pages of newspapers around the world at that time showed people trying to escape cities which were heavily shelled. Our heart's sank. How could such atrocities be happening? Why were schools and hospitals targeted? War is evil. Guess what? With Trump acting as a new dictator the world once again has gone awry. It's scary that one old man with so much power can abuse the system. What does all of this mean for option traders? It means time to sit on the sidelines. Yes you can jump in playing rebounds and catch some nice short term directional moves. You are basically trading against computers. Why not just sit it out and chill? Everything is amuck. Why be trying to make hero trades? Ironically enough some traders are being drawn into this action. Look at this chart. While its difficult to see because of a "pop-up" on the screen "Netflix rebounded over ten dollars a share after reboundin...
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A 2024 Post. So An Analyst Jump Started The Year.

It's the first trading session of the year and the x-mas chatter is that the world is still in a mess, consumers are overextended, rents might be softening and EV sales are hitting a rough patch. So what's the analyst jump start I am talking about?
This isn't the first time it has jumped in a while. Look at this one day jump in mid December a few years ago.
The stock also did jump from $15.92 on Sept 1st 2019 to $384.86 on Sept 1st 2021. Now look at the price of the 115 puts for this friday. The time of this reading was 1:48 p.m. after the morning jump was over.
So this analyst is really reporting nothing new and simple playing the odds of getting recognized for an early year claim, knowing that the media is starving for news. Yet trying to play the downside on news that is not really news is a tough way to start the year. There are better things to be watching. (See my last's weeks blog on Costco falling). Now see how this series of Puts closed out the day.
Let's see what happens next. It dropped again the following morning. It will not drop forever. Time to move on to something different. Now note the open interest as of yesterdays close. Read what it is. The answer is ONE. That is amazing! Just one. Then see below the number 353 which represents the closing open interest. Subtract this number from the number 1011 and that's the number of in and out contracts traded on the day. Day traders, true to their name were in and out, missing the sizeable drop in share price on the following morning. It all makes sense. Dine and dash.
It also makes me wonder how many insiders played the upside with advance knowledge of this upgrade coming. That is something the regulators should be jumping on.

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