Featured

Netflix - One Day vs Next Weeks Calls.

It's Thursday and the DJIA is up. Here is how Netflix is doing. Now this. Remember that this stock recently did a 10-1 forward stock split. Things don't look good, why isn't the stock sharing in today's upward glee? In situations like this it's best just to stay away. Look at how cheap the Call options look that expire tomorrow. They look tempting however next weeks Call options offer so much more security. Now this at 12:38 p.m. The markets continue to go up. Netflix continues to sell off. Now tomorrows and next week's Calls just after noon. The ones that will take the most heat for the rest of the day will be the short term options. There are decent volumes in both of these series of options. An end of the day report. First the options that expire tomorrow. It would be silly to be in this series of Calls. Now next weeks Calls. Now it's five day chart. One week options are a long way away. Stocks with a bias to the downside are difficult to t...
Post a Comment

Caterpillar - It's First Quarter Earnings Report And Traders Are Staying Away. A Read Which Might Be A Good Reference Point Going Forward.

Boeing rallied yesterday on the release of it's earnings report only then to tank. Caterpillar is tanking this morning in the premarkets. Let's begin with it's 5 day and 30 day chart.
...
The world needs to be rebuilt and Caterpillar is there to help. It's growing, it's got a good reputation, it's not laying off employees and it's doing just fine. If it misses a beat on it's earnings report so what? Life goes on. Then there are those pesky analyst who are known to offer a convoluted spin on things. If you like Caterpillar just buy it on the dips and put it away. So the markets will be opening on the commentary by the companies C.E.O of "sales about flat". Phrasing it that way is a recipe for short term disaster.
.....
The two printouts above show some of the early morning action in one Put series and in One Call series. What happened the next day? A slight rebound with next to no traders trying to capitalize on a rebound. What does this tell us? It tells us option traders in general stay away from trading the "release of earning reports" on Caterpillar.
Now the one week out Call options.
Low open interest, a low volume of trading and relatively big pricings considering the these are only slightly "in-the-money" Calls which might take a few seeks to gain value. The bottom line is that this stock really got beat up and going forward it's going to be again upward journey. It helps that they are buying back their own shares. ** Now a look at how Caterpillar traded at the close on Monday April 29th.
#####
The volume of Calls traded is very light. That's suprising.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slightly out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-ma...
Read more

Waiting For A Drop On The Opening On Bad News - Eli Lilly

Image
Here is the bad news. The company is Eli Lilly. How bad is this news? Well look at it trading in the premarkets. So what do I think? I think the news is a setback of sorts, but not really all that bad. The stock is going to open lower, that's a given. It's like trying to play Boeing after an announcement that an airplane has crashed. So the stock is going to crash and it might have a small rebound and then it's going to slide down some more. A test of sorts will happen sometime in the afternoon. It might stock falling but then where will it go from there? The best case scenario is a recognition that investors got it all wrong and the stock ends up flat on the day. Yet there might be more of a downward dumping of the stock on the close followed by a selloff on tomorrows opening. Should option players be jumping in to play the upside on next week's Calls? That is the question. Here is a look at Boeing on the days after a crash. Day two after the crash was equally as ...
Read more

Another Blog On "Vinfast"

Image
There is so much to read about this companies history online. Do your own homework. Their success is not dependent on what ends up happening with their sales in North America. They are nimble. There are plenty of auto factories all over the world now for sale they can acquire. They have dabbled in Australia. Having access to money to keep going doesn't seem to be their problem. Rivian also seems to enjoy this advantage. Vinfast is currently building a new plant in India which could employ thousands of people. That's an emerging new market. New relationships are being built and new investors will be coming onboard. Are option players looking at this stock? Not really if we look at these "one-month-out" Calls. What about Calls further out? What about next January? Here is a look at the three and four series of Calls. Nobody seems willing to bet Vinfast Calls. Now this. Here are two snippets taken from a blog I wrote about this stock back in early December of 2024. ...
Read more