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A Random Walk In The Park On A Monday Morning. A Caution. Monday Mornings Are Often Not An Option Players Best Friend

Let's start with this. It's now 10:26 a.m. A bet on Caterpillar rebounding by the end of the week. There are no takers. Why have to watch the screen for the next four days in agony waiting for a rebound which if happens is just a "break even trade"? But Wait. I made a mistake. The market is actually now down 668 points. What else can we look at? Interactive Brokers. These kind of stocks always do poorly on days with the threat of margin calls. Yet there is something interesting about the printout I am about to show. It is that these options are "one-month-out" Calls. These longer term options trade differently than short term options. (these options trade in one month intervals). If the stock we are following stops it's freefall the value of the options will nudge up ten, fifteen or twenty percent. A seven dollar option Call might creep back up to $8.00 or $9.00 at which time it could be sold. In contrast with a five day option a slight reversal in ...

The Caterpillar Option Trade of The Week. (For The Week Ending April 19th,2024)

It happened on Friday. But first this news.
Now here is Caterpillars one day trading chart for Friday April 19th.
So the stock was up in the first hour of trading. It' a friday and anything could happen. Are buyers getting in to be part of the good news earning report? Does that set off alarm bells? A red light or a green light? Is it time for some counterintuitive thinking? Now look at this.
A look at how the 357.50 Puts closed on the day. There are other series I could show however these particular ones best illustrate the point I want to make. Can you see the low of the day on these Puts? Can you see where it says $70.00 a contract? As the stock marched up smartly on the opening this series of Puts was under pressure. If Caterpillar kept going up these options would expire worthless. The exact time period I am talking about was somewhere around 10:15 a.m.. Fast forward the time period to around 12:50 p.m. Look at how the Puts jumped up to $5.00! That was the trade of the week on Caterpillar options. Too complicated a trade you might say? Look again. It was actually pretty simple.

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