CAT Puts

The stock Deere is extremely volatile and options on it with one day to go are, for lack of better words, explosive. Explosive beyond belief. Small retail investors are advised to stay away. They are very thinly traded. Just stay away! Now here is how it traded this morning, Friday July 28th. So at this point in time just before 1:00 p.m. it is down $.17 cents on the day. If you owed the stock and were just checking it to see it's current value it would make you just yawn. When I look at it it makes me want to scream in disbelief! At 11:57 p.m. here is what the $375.00 Puts which are $.17 cents "out-of-the-money" Puts are trading at. Do they offer good value? Maybe. Yet that's not my point. Focus instead at how low they these contracts traded at prior in the day. Can you see that they traded down to $.08 cents when the stock was trading well over 380! Image catching this action and predicting the downside around 10:45 a.m. Deere can move five dollars in one day and

There was fresh news that we will tell you about shortly and this is how the 14.5 series of Calls on Rivian were trading at 3:11 p.m. today, a Wednesday. This is mid week news and these particular Calls will be expiring in two trading sessions. Why try to play something that short term when you are late to this party? Only insiders selling would be profiting on this news. Unfortunately that's just the way the system works. Now this. You decide. I think it has the legs to go higher. Now the news which caused the stock to jump. Notice that Rivian cracked the $16.00 range in it's early morning trading only then to sell off to the $14.36 range at 3::11 p.m. Traders jumping into this morning frenzy using short term Call options as a vehicle would have of overpaid and are stuck now in a dangerous situation. This no longer is a good short term story. Friday is only two days away. Yet there is a chance that the last h

My blog of November 27th was entitled "What to Focus On". Please read it. This week we are feeling a bit of a hangover. Last's weeks triple witching event is over. Stocks that were forced to contract in price to sqeeze out spectatate positions on them are now free to resume there old trading patterns. This Monday morning at 10:20 a.m. the Djia is up 301 points. There are also losers. So now what? Mark on your calendar exactly three months down the road how the markets traded on the first morning after one of these triple witching events and use this same logic to catch the upside on the next "hangeover" day like this. How do you pick the winners? Find a few stocks that have enjoyed a recent upswing and play them to pop on the first trading session after one of these events. This blog is just an observation.

The options on Costco that I am about to show you don't expire until the end of the week and here is the current one day chart on Costco. It's a Monday. What do you think of this chart? Will it go up or down next? Nobody knows. Here is what the DJIA is doing? Is the stock now hitting a point of resistance? Once again, it's really to early in the week to tell. There is an "open interest" Put number from the previous session of only five contracts. Traders as of the close last Friday had no real interest in playing it down. Recent history of course tells us not to buy Puts on Costco. Why try to go against an upward trend? Why then does this chart catch my attention? It's the leverage I know the options on this stock offers. Stocks in this price range can drop five or ten dollars in only a matter of an hour and the week still still has 29 hours of trading time to go. Could buying in here now on the downside be a good short term trade? That's the questi

Triple witching is kicking in on Friday and today is a Wednesday with the markets being closed. It's strange that they are closed but they are. The next two days of trading are going to be different. Big players with big bets most likely made closer to the start of the year now have to be rolled into something further out. If you just made $3 million dollars on stock options from trading Nvidia wouldn't you think about taking a tiny portion of the profits and put it into playing the downside? Here now are Nvidia's five and thirty day charts and soon we will looking at the crazy volume of trading on it's "near-to-the-money" Call and Put options. These are options with only two days of trading days life left in them. Can you see it stepping up in price nearly everyday? Like up five days in a row. If you get a ruler out and join up the lines you will see that odds are, based on day to day action that's what is going to contunue to happen. Might it slip back