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A Random Walk In The Park On A Monday Morning. A Caution. Monday Mornings Are Often Not An Option Players Best Friend

Let's start with this. It's now 10:26 a.m. A bet on Caterpillar rebounding by the end of the week. There are no takers. Why have to watch the screen for the next four days in agony waiting for a rebound which if happens is just a "break even trade"? But Wait. I made a mistake. The market is actually now down 668 points. What else can we look at? Interactive Brokers. These kind of stocks always do poorly on days with the threat of margin calls. Yet there is something interesting about the printout I am about to show. It is that these options are "one-month-out" Calls. These longer term options trade differently than short term options. (these options trade in one month intervals). If the stock we are following stops it's freefall the value of the options will nudge up ten, fifteen or twenty percent. A seven dollar option Call might creep back up to $8.00 or $9.00 at which time it could be sold. In contrast with a five day option a slight reversal in ...
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Something Is Happening With Deere Calls.

You don't see this very often. I follow Deere options. First it's five day chart.
Now a look at the 410 Puts which expire at the end of the week. There is nothing strange about this. A few traders got in to play the downside.
Now the 410 Calls and what do you see?
819 contracts traded in the first ninety minutes of trading on this series of Calls that expire at the end of the week. A number of contracts this large tells us something. Or does it? Let's investigate further. Let's look at the volume of trading in the Deere Calls one striking price higher.
Why aren't more traders jumping into these ones if someone likes the 410 series so much? In the same sort of way why aren't traders jumping into next weeks Call options given the apparent spike in these Calls?
Now a check with "Yahoo" at noon to make sure these reported numbers are correct. Yes,the volume of Call options traded is now 855 contracts. More typical numbers would be 10 or 20.
Something happening here is strange. Earnings don't come out until prior to the markets opening on November 21st. Now here is how the same 410 series of Calls closed the day. They were way down.
To be continued.
Now this.
Now todays five day chart.
So what happened? What was all this smoke and mirrors all about? 1,045 Call contracts traded on the day in the 410 series of Deere Calls that expire on Friday but the "open interest number only went up by 116 contracts. Someone wasn't buying the 410 Calls on the crazy day of hugh trading. Someome was selling the Calls and buying them back before the markets closed on that same day!Forget the heading "Something Is Happening With Deere Calls" Someone with a fat bank account was out selling Calls and not buying them to make more money. Talk about swimming in a sea of sharks.

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