CAT Puts

I have talked about this stock before (Hesai Group) and this morning it suprised again. Back on May 17th I did a blog on it called "A New Company To Learn About". Now lets look at it's current five day chart leading up to this morning. Look at yesterdays volume pour into it. Now this mornings early action. Another spike in volume on the opening. What's all the excitement about this morning? If you don't know this company here is what they do. Now back to my May 17th blog. Where were the five series of Calls on it trading back then which expire in January 2025? Here is how this same series of Calls is trading now. No one had any interest in them. The bid and ask where crazy far apart. The option makers were burdened by making option markets for a stock with not much of an option trading history. The worry aferall is that a stock like this could double or tank overnight on news. Any stock could but more often it happens in this price range. Why would I say t...

What if? But who has money to throw around like water? What if the markets decided to cool it? Wednesdays are usually better days for market reversals than Tuesdays. Caterpillar and Deere both had crazy high gains over the last five trading days. Deere is up after exposing the details of declining sales. Exposing is a strange word to use but it better helps to explain the pain it is now facing. It is so confusing as to why it is up so much. Read my November 22nd, 2023 blog when Deere was pretty much in the same situation. So much forward looking thinking is baked into the the current prices of these two stocks. The question now is could the markets turn on a dime? Look at the Put prices on short term "out-of-the-money" on Caterpillar and Deere positions. The Caterpillar Puts I will first show are like ten dollars "out-of-the money" and the Deere Puts five dollars "out-of-the-money".That's a bit to far out. Now Deere. Both charts show a similiar trad...

In two previous blogs I talked about V.W. giving them money to then watch the stock flutter up and come right back down again. They are still losing money. Here was todays action. First two different pieces of news which I didn't see until late morning. Now here is how it traded back on Nov. 21 st on the V.W.news. Now here is how it traded this morning. This five day chart shows a spike up this morning at 10:28 a.m. What did the ten series of Calls do, the ones that expire this friday? Well seven minutes into the market they were up 88%. Now additional details. A government loan to help build a new plant. How did the ten series of Calls close out the day? The Calls were up 288%. Final thoughts. It helped the DJIA was up 440 points on the day. Rivian gained last week .18 cents. Had you bought one week Calls on it last Monday you would have got smoked. Imagine purchasing the 10.5 series of Puts on Rivian this morning that expire this Friday thinking the stock would sell off...

In my most recent blog I talked about Lowes and how the narrative of "poor earnings" was turned into a positive. Sales were off and the stock dropped however two days later it's right back up again. Playing options on the news found in quarterly earnings reports can be tricky. It's easier sometimes to rationalize the exercse of purchasing of Calls after a stock has dropped than it is to buy Puts in anticipation a drop. Yesterday Deare came out with a shockingly poor earnings report and the stock jumped $28.00 on that news. What heck was that all about? Read the details of how off their sales were off in different divisions. What makes you think things are going to turn around? A 10% or 15% recent decline is something that could be shrugged off but not declines of let's say 38%. Do you know how difficult it is going to be to ramp things back up again? How do you know demand will pick up again? Wouldn't company insiders know these results were going to be so po...

An earning's report came out and some of the reason's the stock dropped made sense. Let me tell you what happened and why. Lowe's sold off in price over $12.00 in one day on an earnings report. How bad was the report? Well that is something that is debatable. Some people would say that past sales are not a good indication as to what might happen next. Not many option traders attempted to trade in it. Some traders derive more pleasure in playing the rebounds after these types of announcements come out. Here is what their C.E.O said. It is her job to try to put was a positive spin on things. Every word she uttered was well rehearsed. Lowes and Home Depot are always difficult to play because their stories can be spun in so many different ways. On a different note, the Put options five dollars "out-of-the-money", which were the 265 series of Puts were a cheaper and a more profitable way to play this action than the 270 Puts. Yet then again, if the stock only dro...