Featured

Walmart Again

On Monday I did a blog on buying this week's Call options on Walmart for a morning move. Today is now Thursday and there was a big sell off in the markets yesterday. Tesla sold off for example and here is what happened to it. Today it is slightly rebounding as are so many other stocks. Thursdays however as oftened mentioned in recent blogs are not a good time to be purchasing one day options on stocks that expire the next day. Times change. In less chaotic times that's not always case. In the last few years there would be known upcoming Friday morning events like the release farm payroll numbers or other economic readings that would move the needle on the markets going up or down on on a Friday morning. In those markets it paid to get into option positions before the closing on a Thursday to get out on the Friday morning bounces were caused by the release of these premarket reports. So how is any of this revelant to Walmart's trading today? Well, there was a whole bunch o...
Post a Comment

Another Earnings Report - "Roku" - Thursdays and Friday Trading.

Please read this Roku "earnings report" blog. Roku was down fifteen dollars in the first hour of trading today after the release of it's third quarter earnings report. Here is a 10:52 a.m. look at one series of Puts that doubled in price on the opening as a result of this sell off.
In my last blog on Caterpillar I talked about points of inflection where stocks rebound after bad news. This time an inflection point may not be in the cards. Caterpillars earning were just shy of expections but nothing had really changed. The world still needs their products and they are still a dominant player in their industry. Roku is a different animal. Their subscribers are a fickle bunch. Companies like Roku and Netflix go up and down all the time. Roku now is just back to a level at which it was trading at earlier this year. I don't know how to interpret their financial statements. Things still look pretty good for them to me.
Once again here is a look at the increase in the value of the Puts today on the opening. It's the same printout again.
Can you see how the Puts jumped on the opening? My point is that getting out near the top is never an exacting science. In the bigger picture, here is a look at it's three month chart and five day chart. The five day chart is the most pertinent one at this point in time. It's rounded cup formation is one of the most difficult charts to read. One thing for sure is that the company is not be prone to putting out any new news releases at this point in time. There is enough things happening without having stir the pot.
....................
Now look at the above chart and then check out below to look at the Roku options that expire tomorrow. Here are the 64 series Call options and the 64 series of Puts options "end-of-day" readings going into a Friday. Do you think the the Puts might win on the opening only then to watch the stock creep back up higher during the rest of the day? That's my prediction. Keep the stock flat to down on the opening to force the existing option holders to think about bailing out at a loss.
Look now at an open interest number in the Calls of only 22 contracts after 1,447 contracts traded on the day. That's a testament to how fine-tuned one day option traders as a collective group have become. It's almost comical to say that "one-day-to-expiring" option traders are a cautious group. It appears that no one wants to speculate on the possibilities of an opening bell Roku uptick. Why could that be? Are other optionable stocks appearing to trade in the same fashion? Why isn't the right side of a cup formation in a stock chart the right place to be? Why also hasn't the passage of an hour or so of trading time given more analyst the time to rething their bearish sentiment? Now let's take a look at how the Puts are trading. Notice the higher open interest numbers. There is a fear the stock might drop a dollar or two on the opening.
It's now Friday morning and the markets are up strongly.
Here is how the options on Roku are doing. The Calls have lost half of their value and the Puts about a third. That's what the option makers know how to make happen.
Now a look at the markets and the stock at 11:11 a.m. The markets are charging upwards and the Calls now are roughly the same as what they closed at on the previous day. .
......
.........
The stock seems to stuck in the mud. Now lets jump ahead to the closing action.
The stock crept up all day and the 64 series of Calls closed at 4.00 p.m. with a bid of $1.59 and an ask of $1.98. * The posted closing price of $.89 is a mistake. It might correct itself going forward. Here now is the five day chart.
Earning report plays are what so many option players enjoy the most.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

A Fireside Chat - One Year Options and Thirty Day Options. Which is Better?

Image
Some say to think small, not big. Trying to play Disney options is thinking big. It is a stock slighty out of favor. If we start with it's a three year chart, we will see it is down by about 50% over that period of time. Now it's one year chart. If the stock can break 110 in early 2024 the sky is the limit. It does have a lot of moving parts so anything could happen. Look at these Calls options one year out. One year in options buys a lot of time.They look reasonable. If the stock ever inched up to the $105.00 price level in the three or four months these options would jump up in price by about 50%. Even more if they had really good news. Yet it's the "what-if" aspect of the equation that castes such a trade in doubt. "What if" stories just don't cut it. There are to many variables in play. Then again, why are we even thinking of long-term Call options after a December's rally? Let's switch gears. If consumers are out spending for X-mas...
Read more

Trump Media Technology Options With Three Days To Go.

Image
On Tuesday just after 3:00 p.m the Trump Media Technology Options had stop traded again. What is the next 24 hours going to bring? Who knows. So many option traders follow this stock and most are afraid to buy either Call or Put Options on it because their premiums are so expensive. If Trumph wins the stock should soar and if he loses the stock will tank. The option premiums are priced expensively in both directions. Here now is how both the Calls and Puts traded on the opening today. First the Calls six minutes into the opening. Now the Puts. Now a look at how these options played the day. With a "stop trading" situation the option session ended a little bit early as evidenced in these following readings. Notice also how low the open interest number is in these Puts. Option traders for the most part opted to stay away from this situation. Now this. Trump wins. Here is how the 38 series of Calls traded just after the opening at 10:11 a.m.. The stock is up however the...
Read more