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A Random Walk In The Park On A Monday Morning. A Caution. Monday Mornings Are Often Not An Option Players Best Friend

Let's start with this. It's now 10:26 a.m. A bet on Caterpillar rebounding by the end of the week. There are no takers. Why have to watch the screen for the next four days in agony waiting for a rebound which if happens is just a "break even trade"? But Wait. I made a mistake. The market is actually now down 668 points. What else can we look at? Interactive Brokers. These kind of stocks always do poorly on days with the threat of margin calls. Yet there is something interesting about the printout I am about to show. It is that these options are "one-month-out" Calls. These longer term options trade differently than short term options. (these options trade in one month intervals). If the stock we are following stops it's freefall the value of the options will nudge up ten, fifteen or twenty percent. A seven dollar option Call might creep back up to $8.00 or $9.00 at which time it could be sold. In contrast with a five day option a slight reversal in ...
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Looking for Monday Morning Rebounds. Stocks Mentioned. Deere, Tesla, Boeing and Ford

Deere did nothing last week and it moved up Monday morning.
Here is how two series of Calls reacted in the first 45 minutes of trading. First the Calls that expire in four days, the $400.00 series of calls.
Now the $402.50 Calls.
Gains of 47% and 50% respectedly. What about Tesla? The reverse happened. Here is its five day chart and it dropped $8.36 on the opening before rebounding slightly. .
Here is what the Tesla 250 Puts that expire this Friday did. They closed last Friday at $8.80 and went as high as $14.90 on the opening, a gain of 69%.
What is my point? Well both stocks dropped over ten dollars a share last week and both stocks did a rebalancing act this morning. Let me add more context. Its 10:45 a.m. and here is Boeing's five day chart. I have talked about how Boing sometimes jumps on Monday mornings.
Boeing is up just over $1.00 in the first 45 minutes of trading and is hovering at a price pretty much in line with where it was trading at last week. For this reason I would not of had placed it on the list of stocks to jump on a Monday morning. Yet another candidate for a Monday morning rebound this morning was Ford. Ford last week was the NYSE most actively traded stock by share volumes down $.85 cents on the week to $10.02 on a poor earnings report. That's a big drop. Look at its five day chart, this time at the 11:00 a.m.mark on Monday morning.
The reasons for looking at a rebound of some sort on this stock on a Monday morning are not as compelling as the reasons for looking for a rebound in Deere or Telsa. Yet the jump in it's price neutralizes to some degree some of the damage done to this stocks decline last week. That's what Monday mornings are sometimes know to do. The Ford options on it's one week 10 series of Call options also doubled on the opening.
Is all of this called playing hunches? I would like to think that there is more to it than that.

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