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Exxon Has Just Had Like Four Days Of Going Up.

Exxon just broke it's previous three month high. Now it's five day chart. Now it's chart as of 10:42 a.m. this morning. Today is Wednesday. The markets are closing today at 1:00 pm., then closed tomorrow for Christmas and then open again for a full trading day on Friday. Now this. A look first the Calls which are $.30 cents "out-of-the-money" and expire on Friday. Now the Puts which are already like $.30 "in-the-money". Expectations are that the stock is going to go up and that there is still a full day of trading on Friday. Here is what the markets and what the price of oil are doing. Can you see how traders have a preference for the Call options and are hoping Exxon continues it's natural progression upwards. They are prepared to pay somewhat of a premium to be positioned in this situation. I don't know what the outcome is going to be. Nobody does. As a reader can you see the complexities of trying to figure out this outcome? My point is...
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A Follow Up To A Recent Blog I Did About Playing Two Week Options

Let's begin by saying I am not a big fan of buying "two-week-out" options. Yes they cost a touch more than "one-week-out" options however that is not the reason why. I like thirty day out options and one year out options and Monday, Wednesday and Friday "one- day-options" better. So what's the matter with "two-week-out" options? Here is my answer. Back on January 6th we looked at the Interactive Brokers Group 180 series of Calls that expire on January 17th. At that time they were trading at $4.90 a contract. Here is a look at that printout I posted.
Now this, a Friday January 10th printout. The DJIA closed down over six hundred points on the day.
So here we are at the end of the week and we have for lack of a better word, wasted four days or almost half the life of these options. But wait. Can you see how they where down 47.66% on the day? That means on the previous closing session they were trading at $6.25 per contract. (It's a brokerage company so it's obvious it's going to drop on a day the market has a big sell off). Now a look at it's five day chart.
Imagine buying Puts on it on the morning rally on Tuesday morning and getting out at a huge profit minutes later at about 10:30 a.m. If you follow the charts wouldn't you recognize that could happen? If you answer yes then why do you need to clutter up your mind with "two-week-out" options. I say this because I feel more secure playing five, three or one day options than I do playing "two-week-out-options". Yet that's only me. ** Yes there was a decent profit to be had on the "two-week-out" options preceding Fridays precipice slide but that's another part on the "two-week-out" option holding syndrome. The urgency to take profits isn't there compared to playing shorter term options. ** How did these 185 Calls end up trading on January 17th?
Bottom line. The options on this stock are more interesting than most.

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