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How To Avoid Time Value Traps With Last Week Options.

This blog is not going to be an exhausting study of this topic. I just want to show you a few charts found in recent blogs and comment on which ones seem to skirt the issue of "time-value-concerns' and which ones don't. 1) Avoid Thursday at the close Call options. In this case Thursday is the second last day of the above chart. If you guess the wrong direction on the close it's going to be game over on Friday when the options expire. Thursday at the close on options that expire the next day are the biggest time value traps you can buy into. If the stock moves in the wrong direction it's game over. 2) Ford on a Monday going into Tuesday. On this chart April 13th is a Monday and Tuesday is the 14th. Can you see Ford closing strong on the close of the 13th? It would make sense to get in on the stong closing because these Calls would still have four trading days to recover if Tuesdays opening was not all that spectacular. 3) This time it's Caterpillar and it...
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Ford Always Piggybacks G.M.'s Earning Reports

Look out. Option players can get whipsawed. A good earnings report can turn out to be a bad earnings report. If you have time read this.
Here is how G.M. traded yesterday after the release of their quarterly earnings report.
A heathy earnings report and the stock sold off in price. Now these two readouts.
With the stock closing at $50.02 cents might it rebound on the morning after? Now look at this.
These options in the first hour of trading don't know what they want to do and they still have a few days life left in them. Ford has an earnings report coming out Feb. 5th. The results of G.M. large cash flows might tweak the interest in owing Ford Calls. Folks this is real time action where trading decisions abound. Here is a 10:03 a.m. printout of how G.M. is trading on the day.
The stock is doing nothing. Let's look now at the Ford short options knowing their earning report is coming out in a few days. .
Here is it's five day chart. It sold off yesterday in sympathy with G.M.'s decline.
What do I think is going to happen? The tariff talks are a big scare and options on $50.00 priced stocks do not swing as much as options on stocks that cost double or triple that amount. Yet the real point of this blog is to point out that this piggyback type of action of Ford and G.M. happens four times a year. It's now 3:17 p.m., a few hours after this first posting. G.M. makes cars and trucks in both Canada and Mexico. Trump is talking tariffs this weekend. Will this become a new reality which might start to weigh in and push the price of both of these stocks down? G.M. isn't rebounding.
.Now this.
. Now the Jan 30th opening for the 50 series G.M. Calls. These are dangerous options to be in with time running out and the clock ticking as to why the tariffs might be imposed. I would just bail on them and step aside from trying to play Ford for the upside.
I actually like options on higher priced stock better which often swing more or options on stocks in the $10.00 range. Now this. A look at the G.M. chart for the day.
Here are the 50 series of Calls at the end of the day.
G.M. ended up closing out the week (Jan 30th) at $49.43. After following this action all week waiting for an upward rebound the stock fizzled out. Now let's look ahead to February 4th which is a Tuesday. As we can see G.M. is still caught up in tariff worries.
The new question is the one of will Ford stock now suprise? None of this is a walk in the park. With earning coming out after the closing bell tomorrow here is the Feb 4th five day chart and the closing readings on this Friday's Calls and Puts. Their numbers are all crazy expensive.
Read my Feb 9th blog to see how next week Ford Put options fared.

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